The economic momentum behind the Thai PM's Indonesia visit

Jakarta (ANTARA) - The visit of Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul to Indonesia on August 3, 2026, marked the first official visit by a Thai prime minister to Indonesia in 15 years. It was also Anutin’s first overseas visit since he took office as Thailand’s 32nd prime minister in September 2025.The meeting between Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto and Prime Minister Anutin shifted the focus of Indonesia–Thailand bilateral relations toward more concrete cooperation.

One of the most prominent outcomes was the setting of a US$20 billion bilateral trade target by 2030, as outlined in the 2026–2030 Indonesia–Thailand Strategic Partnership Roadmap.

Trade data over the past five years suggests that the target is achievable and broadly aligned with the existing trend.

In 2021, Indonesia–Thailand bilateral trade reached US$16.23 billion, rising to US$19.19 billion in 2022 before settling at around US$17.5 billion in 2023 and 2024. In 2025, trade grew 1.35 percent year-on-year to US$17.67 billion.

Data from the Indonesian Ministry of Trade shows that total bilateral trade reached US$9.80 billion in the first half of 2026.

If this momentum continues through the end of the year, Indonesia–Thailand trade in 2026 could reach nearly US$19.6 billion, putting it within reach of the US$20 billion target set for 2030. The roadmap provides a strategic framework to support this growth.

The strengthening relationship is also reflected in Indonesia’s improving trade balance.

Official data from the Ministry of Trade and Statistics Indonesia (BPS) shows that Indonesia has consistently recorded a trade deficit with Thailand since 2011, driven largely by imports of machinery and automotive products.

The deficit peaked at a record US$3.05 billion in 2023. The deficit narrowed significantly to US$2.02 billion in 2024 and fell further to US$140.6 million in 2025.

The decline was driven by a 13.73 percent year-on-year increase in Indonesian exports. Indonesian exports, led by oil, coal, seafood, and paper, outpaced imports from Thailand, which mainly consisted of rice, machinery, and vehicle parts.

To sustain this positive trend, Prabowo and Anutin agreed to strengthen the Joint Trade Commission, which is tasked with expanding market access and reducing trade barriers between the two Southeast Asian countries.

The strengthened partnership is also accompanied by initiatives to develop human resources. Indonesia and Thailand signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on education, with Indonesian Primary and Secondary Education Minister Abdul Mu’ti and Thai Education Minister Prasert Jantararuangtong signing the agreement.

The cooperation focuses on knowledge-sharing and student exchanges as a long-term investment in future economic growth.

On connectivity, Anutin’s visit delivered concrete progress with the opening of new direct flight routes between Jakarta and Bangkok and between Denpasar and Phuket.

President Prabowo welcomed the new routes, saying they would help strengthen people-to-people ties. Anutin said the routes would target health tourism, MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conventions, and Exhibitions) events, and cruise tourism — high-value market segments compared with conventional mass tourism.

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Expanded connectivity is also being supported by the private sector through the signing of a tourism MoU between Indonesian airline TransNusa and the Tourism Authority of Thailand.

The combined population of nearly 350 million people in Indonesia and Thailand gives the two countries significant potential to expand cross-border investment, supported by a large consumer market and a steadily growing middle class.

Their partnership, elevated to a Strategic Partnership in 2025, is now being put into action through the 2026–2030 roadmap, which targets priority areas including food security, energy transition, the digital economy, and the halal industry. This comprehensive approach places economic cooperation alongside security and socio-cultural ties.

Amid global economic uncertainty, the strengthened partnership between the two countries sends a positive signal for regional stability.

President Prabowo underscored the significance of the visit in shaping the strategic role of the two founding ASEAN members, while Anutin highlighted their shared responsibility as key pillars of regional progress.

Beyond the economic sector, Indonesia and Thailand also agreed to strengthen security cooperation, particularly in combating transnational crime and protecting victims of online scams in border areas.

President Prabowo specifically expressed appreciation to the Thai government for facilitating the repatriation of nearly 1,000 Indonesian nationals from scam centers.

With the Joint Trade Commission, the five-year roadmap, and expanded connectivity routes, the foundation of the Indonesia–Thailand partnership is now on firmer footing.

If both countries can maintain the strong trade performance recorded in the first half of 2026, the US$20 billion target for 2030 will no longer be merely a figure on paper, but a realistic and measurable goal.